Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-12 221.297076 263.593760 314.123807 379.630548 463.324786 568.083167 7.113955e+02
2025-10-19 173.981359 225.546937 294.365955 395.387111 544.271113 763.122239 1.124462e+03
2025-10-26 144.446434 198.771853 277.295869 403.866882 612.708043 963.905841 1.650557e+03
2025-11-02 123.401483 177.670330 261.089738 405.966155 668.484677 1164.785245 2.299923e+03
2025-11-09 106.057190 158.089910 241.989886 396.643097 699.381191 1332.297760 3.002270e+03
2025-11-16 92.855709 142.457822 225.715043 387.231127 725.693354 1501.493899 3.851360e+03
2025-11-23 82.294482 129.364986 211.123981 376.934522 746.114790 1667.078223 4.855958e+03
2025-11-30 78.936011 127.889449 216.645512 407.157925 866.467493 2152.328472 7.558321e+03
2025-12-07 72.994303 120.925349 210.647707 411.714128 927.491800 2512.944012 1.040282e+04
2025-12-14 68.590391 116.131056 207.970053 422.869702 1010.390412 3005.354041 1.503750e+04
2025-12-21 63.635516 109.650216 200.845161 421.983603 1059.925681 3422.745551 2.048579e+04
2025-12-28 62.367151 110.085685 208.065768 457.880886 1236.587574 4522.679343 3.641266e+04
2026-01-04 60.296832 108.851842 211.930484 487.713555 1415.739280 5899.924469 6.737484e+04
2026-01-11 57.771517 106.381856 212.685066 509.772981 1583.297531 7505.320979 1.269520e+05
2026-01-18 54.840467 102.695753 210.032072 521.570681 1720.932470 9207.151591 2.379676e+05
2026-01-25 51.717656 98.232692 204.834379 524.495804 1825.797203 10927.117372 4.446194e+05
2026-02-01 48.119280 92.347785 195.320057 511.640109 1854.686903 12122.588747 7.430093e+05
2026-02-08 44.889665 86.971212 186.379382 498.683045 1878.441501 13384.090206 1.298524e+06
2026-02-15 41.932112 81.931023 177.655848 484.537650 1890.539981 14616.173473 2.346033e+06
2026-02-22 41.607369 82.864782 184.562874 526.150782 2231.074193 21140.622096 1.908187e+07
2026-03-01 39.853177 80.287303 181.753149 532.447693 2379.784581 25857.528932 1.650297e+08
2026-03-08 38.558968 78.673446 181.359867 547.890794 2602.239093 33408.946817 2.517319e+11
2026-03-15 36.790062 75.752239 176.930834 546.662816 2716.858420 39772.039346 NaN